Thursday, November 1, 2007

Multiple conflicts Bleed Pakistan Army.

Sample Post
As per our intelligence inputs, Pakistani officers are jostling with low morale among their troops. The abductions and killings of soldiers by militants have only added to the disenchantment among troops, which is being reflected in a large number of desertions, suicides and AWOL (absent without leave) cases,"

Editorial Comment

As I have said before the Pakistani army is no match for the battle hardened Taliban or it's Waziristan country men. It further has no stomach to fire on it's own people. The stage is set for a revolt, desertions are already taking place. The Coup if there is one this time, will come from the Colonels. These will be people who will be backed by the Taliban.

The anti American feeling in Pakistan is on a rising tide. It may be less evident in the Cities but it is certainly becoming vocal in places like Swat. The entire Wesern belt of Pakistan is now a place where the writ of the Govt. is being defied. The Taliban are popular not because people are turning fundamentalist but because they represent a leadership who wants freedom from foreign influence.

This is bad news for Musharaf and worse for Benazir. The USA can see the writing on the wall and there is much talk about Pakistan being the most dangerous country in the world.
Benazir has already flown out of the country, creating an anti climax to the " great homecoming". Meanwhile the Supreme Court is delaying giving any decisions and I suspect will not give any until the term of the present assemblies expires in two weeks time.

Pakistan will then have no Assemblies and no legally elected President. Declaring a state of emergency is now going to be unpopular not only with the public but also with the army . I suspect the army is angry about being put in a position of getting beaten up by tribals. They will not just blame Musharraf but the entire pro western high command.

If America has created the circumstances for a dangerous world by the way it has behaved in Iraq and the way it has behaved in Afghanistan , it is right in thinking that conditions in Pakistan are on the way to the world becoming even more dangerous. They of course do not see it as their doing.

This is the crux of the bigger "problem", the sole super power that is unaware of it's own excesses. In fact it refuses to accept that it has made any mistakes let alone blunders. In an attempt to remove the "misunderstanding' amongst the billions of Muslims in particular, it gave Karen Hughes $ 1 billion to put on a PR campaign. After having spent the money, Karen Hughes resigned today, leaving America more unpopular than before. She follows in the footsteps of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, a pitiful trio loyal to Bush, right upto the last dollar of the tax payers money.

The US rhetoric is that they will initiate World War III if Iran gets any where near getting a Nuclear capability. This form of rhetoric is far more dangerous then any thing Ahmedinejad can come up with. However, what if Pakistan gets unfriendly. It already has several Nuclear bombs and Israel is within reach of these missiles. Right now the only thing stopping World War III is the Supreme Court of Pakistan. It's next decision, Nov 12 or perhaps Nov 15.


Printed from
The Times of India -Breaking news, views. reviews, cricket from across India
Multiple conflicts bleed Pak army31 Oct 2007, 0031 hrs IST, Rajat Pandit,

NEW DELHI: The Pakistani Army is "bleeding", and quite profusely at that, in its ongoing bloody skirmishes with extremists in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, with a "high" casualty rate as well as "unprecedented" levels of desertions, suicides and discharge applications. This is the "assessment" of the Indian security establishment closely tracking developments in Pakistan's federally administered tribal areas (FATA), especially the Waziristan region, as also the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Balochistan.

The embattled Pakistani Army may have managed an uneasy ceasefire with pro-Taliban extremists in Swat Valley in NWFP on Monday, after days of fierce fighting, but things would only get worse for it in the coming days, officials here said. The loud and clear indicator for this came on Tuesday, with a suicide attack near the heavily-fortified Pakistani Army HQ in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, killing at least seven people. The secure compound, incidentally, also houses President Pervez Musharraf's office. In recent days, Pakistan has been rocked by several suicide attacks and bombings, most of which are being traced back to Islamic extremists under attack from security forces near the Afghan border.

Under mounting pressure from the US, Pakistan has deployed well over 100,000 soldiers in the volatile tribal areas - inhabited by fiercely independent tribes who resist outside interference in their matters - to take on the Taliban, Al-Qaida and other extremist outfits who have created safe havens there. "These outfits were once nurtured by ISI, and now the chickens are coming home to roost.

Our estimates show around 1,000 Pakistani soldiers have been killed in the fighting. Casualties in 'Operation Al Mizan' in north Waziristan have been particularly high," said an official. "As per our intelligence inputs, Pakistani officers are jostling with low morale among their troops. The abductions and killings of soldiers by militants have only added to the disenchantment among troops, which is being reflected in a large number of desertions, suicides and AWOL (absent without leave) cases," he added.

With the heavy operational commitment adversely affecting Pakistani Army's rotation schedule, the majority of such cases are being reported from FATA and NWFP. Between just October 11 and 16, for instance, 160 desertion cases were reported from these areas. In fact, reports of soldiers even refusing to obey orders have begun to emerge from Waziristan now, in what is being seen as a blow to the otherwise well-disciplined Pakistani Army.

While the tribal areas have always been restive, there has certainly been an upsurge in violence ever since Musharraf ordered troops to flush out extremists holed up inside Lal Masjid in Islamabad in July, which led to over 100 militants being killed in the week-long face-off. With the US virtually ordering the Musharraf regime to effectively tackle the problem of Taliban militants crossing over from Afghanistan into the tribal areas to recoup and re-arm, the Pakistani Army is now promising an "all-out military effort" to sort out North and South Waziristan "once and for all".

Pakistan, of course, has made such promises in the past too, in keeping with its "duplicitous" policy to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds. But this time, big brother US is watching closely.

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