The US as a debtor nation

By 2007 total indebtedness was three times the size of the gross domestic product, a ratio that surpassed the record set in the years of the Great Depression. From 2001 to 2007 alone, domestic financial debt grew to $14.5 trillion from $8.5 trillion, and home mortgage debt ballooned to almost $10 trillion from $4.9 trillion, an increase of 102 percent. A crisis in the mortgage market in August 2007 brought the party to an end.
What happens when creditors decide to pull out their money? It could happen in the form of gradual withdrawals or it could happen like a Bank run. I believe the time to panic is now rather than when there is a run.
Khusro

The problem actually started in the mid eighties when the US within a very few years turned from being the largest creditor nation to the largest debtor. Consumer overspending financed by mounting foreign debt (then called the ‘ Twin Towers ’). One result - the stock market crash of 1987 and a shakeout in the financial markets.
Now the debt has grown hugely, but by a strange twist the creditor nations- BRIC ( Brazil , Russia , India and China ) and the larger oil producing countries are more hostages to the US than the other way round. They cannot shift much of the reserves. No country is economically large enough and everyone (incl. the most likely candidate, the EEC with their Euro) is unwilling to allow their currency to be used as a reserve currency.
So the creditors are stuck with the US $ and they will resist a precipitate decline in the US $ or any kind of run.
Of course, there is a desperate search for investment diversification (by the creditor nations) which bodes well for some developing countries, e.g. massive real estate, incl., more recently, agricultural land in Pakistan

Regards
Kemal Shoaib

"Since 2001, the US share of world gross domestic product has fallen from 34 per cent to 28 per cent, while that of the Brics has risen from 8 per cent to 16 per cent. China’s reserves have rocketed from $200bn to $1,800bn, Brazil’s from $35bn to $200bn, Russia’s from $35bn to $500bn and India’s from $50bn to $300bn. World oil consumers have tran­sferred more than $3,000bn to exporters. Because of America’s very low savings rate and heavy reliance on credit, US consumers, companies, financial institutions and the federal government must borrow heavily from these countries. The dollar now has a world-class competitor, the euro, which accounts for nearly 30 per cent of all international currency reserves, a proportion rising fast. And US trade, especially with emerging economies, is climbing as a portion of GDP, with fast-growing exports now giving the economy a desperately needed boost."

There is an unmistakable trend of wealth shifting from West to East. For the time being the Creditors might be hostage to the US but that is a matter of time as alternate markets start developing. A crisis of confidence in the US is helping to accelerate the search for alternates. The seven years since Sept 11 or the seven years of Bush, whichever way you want to look at it have decimated the US Economy, but in truth the decline has been going on for much longer. With every passing day, my prediction, that the Dow will soon hit 11,000 and the Euro will soon equal 2 dollars, is coming closer to realisation.

Khusro

Capital Flow From Emerging Nations To U.S. Poses Some Risks

By Michael M. Phillips

Word Count: 979
Washington

The U.S. has long depended on the kindness of strangers to finance its import bill. These days, those strangers are likely to be in China , Brazil , Mexico or some other emerging nation.
The U.S. has to import, on net, almost $2 billion in capital a day to cover its enormous trade gap. Of the $920 billion that foreigners pumped into U.S. stocks, bonds and government securities last year, $361 billion -- a stunning 39% -- came from emerging-market nations, according to calculations by Bank of America, using Treasury Department data.
China alone accounted for 21 percentage points of the ...

....Foreigners earned an average annual return of 4.3% on their US Investments, while Americans earned 11.2% on their Investments overseas. .... "They're probably questioning the efficiency of our financial markets"....

..Further more , the US finds not only dependent on money from the developing world, but in large parts dependent on money from Governments- and undemocratic ones.

Are there multiple roads to salvation- A discussion

"On some basics, the American faithful are much alike. Ninety-two percent believe in God, including 70 percent of those not connected with any religion. Three-quarters believe in life after death, and 79 percent believe in miracles. "

The issues posed are serious but I doubt if the answers are given that seriously. I have doubts about the value of these statistics although from my point of view the results are very encouraging. As I move amongst mainstream American Society I am surprised at the number of people with a conscience and this too is eye opening.

Belief in God, unless it is accompanied by an accompanying belief in all Humanity, is theoretical. I see less evidence of that. Materialism is a competing god and I don't know how these statistics reconcile the two gods.

Khusro

In (almost) all spheres of life it requires extraordinary arrogance to believe in ones own monopoly of the truth.
The same is true of Religion. In my personal experience, Muslims will reluctantly admit that People of the Book have a chance of salvation. Beyond that……………As for Hinduism, they openly deride the many (to outsiders) strange, even barbaric practices.
Forgetting, the huge amount of spiritually advanced thinking and texts in Hinduism, Buddhism, Shintoism, Taoism, Confucianism etc. that have enlightened their adherents and enriched all mankind for ever

Regards
Kemal Shoaib

. Survey of America's religious landscape, that purportedly "bodes well for American pluralism" and that [Muslims split a favorable 56% to 33%, contrasted with the Mormons and the Jehovah's Witnesses, the only groups with a majority believing theirs is the only true path]. The above observation as re the Muslims came as an unexpected and pleasant surprise for me.In my view that is very much the result of the Muslims having lived and benefited immensely from the freedom of thought and life style in their adopted pluralistic, multi religious and secular countries. I wonder what would be the proportional break down among Muslims in the UK. I can make a fairly good and unflattering guess as re the Muslim majority countries. I very much doubt it would be even remotely as favorable as that in the US survey. Muslims have assigned themselves an almost a pathological right of superiority and exclusivity to such an absolute degree even when it comes to multitudes of intra Islamic sects and sub sects, let alone granting any wiggle room to non- Muslims' humanity and respective faiths.Unlike some of the comments, I am impressed and absolutely not surprised at the number of people with a conscience in the mainstream American society. And, in my opinion, leaving aside individuals, at the societal level materialism is as prevalent in the East as in the West.

Regards,-Kalim

I agree that all people living in Pluralistic Societies are helped including Muslims whose own societies are very restrictive. There is a lot that Muslims should learn from the West. There was a time when it was the Muslims who had Pluralistic Societies and it was Christian Societies that were bigoted. How times have changed. Did the West learn from the Muslims or did they rediscover Pluralism, which their own religion had always advocated?

My reference to Materialism is to that form that reveres materialism as the ultimate measure of life's success. This is where people worship at the alter of materialism. The US is the biggest example of such a culture. While pluralism and tolerance are virtues of this society, rampant materialism is a curse that is eating away at the very foundations of it. The lack of ethics, the double standards, the brazen exploitation of the vulnerable are part of the corporate driven culture which values profits over every thing else. This is what I would want to change about the US. There is not enough awareness of this malaise. China and India are headed in the same direction. Whether in this process they will lose their soul remains to be seen, but there is a good chance.

Khusro---



Forward from the Christian Science Monitor: latest report from the US Religious Landscape Survey. http://origin.csmonitor.com/2008/0624/p02s01-ussc.htmlExcerpt:<<...belief, and practice do not line up the way theologians might want them to line up," ......Indeed, in a step that may unsettle orthodox believers but bodes well for American pluralism,large majorities in nearly every tradition reject religious exclusivity and say that "many religions can lead to eternal life." Only 16 percent of Roman Catholics and 36 percent of Evangelicals, for example, say that "my religion is the one true faith" leading to salvation. Similarly, more than two-thirds of adults with a religious affiliation believe there's more than one true way to interpret the teachings of their own faith...[On this question Muslims split a favorable 56% to 33%, contrasted with the Mormons and the Jehovah's Witnesses, the only groups with a majority believing theirs is the only true path]...Yet divergent perspectives coexist within many traditions. In regard to the conception of God, 60 percent of Americans believe in a personal God, while 25 percent believe in an impersonal force or universal spirit. Eastern Orthodox Christians split 49 to 34 percent on this question, while Muslims divide evenly, 41 to 42 percent. Among Jews, 25 percent believe in a personal God and 50 percent in an impersonal force..>>.


SOURCE: Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life/Rich Clabaugh–STAFFNew findings about U.S. religious lifePractices do not always line up as theologians may expect, a Pew Forum survey finds.
By Jane Lampman Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
from the June 24, 2008 edition

Reporter Jane Lampman discusses the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life's survey of America's religious landscape.
Religion is a vital force in the private and public lives of most Americans and helps mold the country's social and political attitudes, says the latest report from the US Religious Landscape Survey.

Religious freedom has given that vitality free rein. And for most, convictions are matters of personal choice and not necessarily from the tradition in which one was raised. The pathbreaking survey of a representative sample of 35,000 adults has revealed an unprecedented shifting of people among religious affiliations in recent decades. It also shows a remarkable diversity of beliefs and practices – within as well as across faiths.

"While there are important differences between religious traditions, affiliation, belief, and practice do not line up the way theologians might want them to line up," says John Green, senior fellow at Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, which carried out the survey.

Indeed, in a step that may unsettle orthodox believers but bodes well for American pluralism, large majorities in nearly every tradition reject religious exclusivity and say that "many religions can lead to eternal life." Only 16 percent of Roman Catholics and 36 percent of Evangelicals, for example, say that "my religion is the one true faith" leading to salvation. Similarly, more than two-thirds of adults with a religious affiliation believe there's more than one true way to interpret the teachings of their own faith.

"Americans recognize that we do live in a much more complicated landscape than we used to," says Alan Wolfe, director of the Boisi Center for Religion and American Public Life at Boston College.

The survey has been released in two stages. The first report, in February, documented the extraordinary switching among denominations, faiths, and a growing "unaffiliated" category. It also showed that Protestantism is close to losing its majority status in the United States. The second report, released Monday, details the beliefs and practices of people of all traditions – including world faiths and the unaffiliated – and analyzes their impact on social and political views.

"The unaffiliated have a diversity of belief that no one knew existed," says Mark Gray of the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate at Georgetown University in Washington. For instance, 35 percent of them pray at least weekly, including 10 percent of atheists and 18 percent of agnostics.

On some basics, the American faithful are much alike. Ninety-two percent believe in God, including 70 percent of those not connected with any religion. Three-quarters believe in life after death, and 79 percent believe in miracles.

Prayer is a widespread practice, in which 75 percent engage at least weekly and 58 percent daily. Thirty-four percent say they have experienced or witnessed a divine healing of an illness or injury.

Yet divergent perspectives coexist within many traditions. In regard to the conception of God, 60 percent of Americans believe in a personal God, while 25 percent believe in an impersonal force or universal spirit. Eastern Orthodox Christians split 49 to 34 percent on this question, while Muslims divide evenly, 41 to 42 percent. Among Jews, 25 percent believe in a personal God and 50 percent in an impersonal force.

An aspect of practice that often spurs critiques about the depth of American faith relates to sacred texts. While believers hold their scriptures in high esteem – 63 percent call them the word of God – nearly half (45 percent) say they seldom or never read them outside of worship services. That rises to 57 percent for Catholics and 70 percent for Jews. Jehovah's Witnesses and Mormons are the most avid scripture readers, followed by black Protestants and Evangelicals.

"Since our major religions are religions of the book, that's notable," says Professor Wolfe. "The religious revival in America isn't what you could call the old-time religion that has serious theological content or biblical knowledge."

Views differ also on whether the texts should be taken literally. Sixty percent of Evangelicals take the Bible as the literal word of God, while 23 percent of mainline Christians and 22 percent of Catholics do. Fifty percent of Muslims take the Koran literally. On the other hand, 67 percent of Buddhists, 53 percent of Jews, and 47 percent of Hindus say their scriptures are written by men, not God.

While Americans take their religion seriously (more than half say it is very important in their lives), it's not the first place they say they go when making moral choices or deciding on political views.

The survey finds that significant majorities in every tradition and among the unaffiliated agree that there are "absolute standards of right and wrong." When asked where they look for guidance, 52 percent say they count on practical experience and common sense, 29 percent cite religious teachings, and 9 percent point to reason or philosophy.

Similarly, relatively few say they look to religion as the primary source of their views on social and political issues. The survey found links, however, suggesting that religion may play more of a role, perhaps indirectly, than many recognize.

This is most visible with regard to political ideology, where those who are very active religiously tend to be more politically conservative than other Americans. Religion plays an obvious role on social issues such as abortion and homosexuality, yet it also shapes worldviews that affect attitudes on many issues.

The survey found widespread agreement across religious communities on the need for "more government support for the needy, even if it means going into debt."

Environmental protection also gains widespread backing. Majorities in most groups also said good diplomacy rather than military strength was "the best way to ensure peace."